[Kutsogolera] M'mwezi wa Ogasiti, toluene/xylene ndi zinthu zina zofananira zimawonetsa kutsika kotsika. Mitengo yamafuta yapadziko lonse inali yofooka poyamba ndiyeno kulimbikitsidwa; komabe, kufunikira komaliza kwa toluene / xylene yapakhomo ndi zinthu zina zofananira zidakhalabe zofooka. Kumbali yogulitsira, kupezeka kunakula pang'onopang'ono chifukwa cha kutulutsa mphamvu kuchokera kumitengo ina yatsopano, ndipo kuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono ndi zofunikira zofunika zidapangitsa kuti mitengo yamisika yomwe idakambidwa itsike. Ndizinthu zina zokha zomwe zidakwera pang'ono, motsogozedwa ndi zinthu monga mitengo yotsika yam'mbuyomu komanso kuchuluka kwa kufunikira kuchokera kuyambiranso kwa mbewu zina zakumunsi pambuyo pozikonza. Zomwe zimafunikira komanso zofunikira pamsika wa Seputembala zidzakhalabe zofooka, koma pakusunga tchuthi chisanachitike tchuthi chachifupi, msika ukhoza kuyimitsa kugwa kapena kubwereranso pang'ono.
[Kutsogolera]
M'mwezi wa Ogasiti, toluene/xylene ndi zinthu zina zofananira nazo nthawi zambiri zidatsika ndikusinthasintha. Mitengo yamafuta yapadziko lonse lapansi inali yofooka poyamba isanakhazikitsidwe; Komabe, zoweta mapeto ankafuna toluene/xylene ndi mankhwala okhudzana anakhalabe ulesi. Kumbali yopereka chithandizo, kukula kosasunthika kudayendetsedwa ndi kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu kuchokera kumitengo ina yatsopano, kufooketsa zofunika zomwe zimafunikira komanso kutsitsa mitengo yomwe idakambidwa pamsika. Ndizinthu zochepa zokha zomwe zidakwera pang'ono, mothandizidwa ndi mitengo yotsika komanso kufunikira kowonjezereka kuchokera kuyambiranso kwa mbewu zina zakumunsi pambuyo pozikonza. Zofunikira zomwe zimafunidwa zidzakhalabe zofooka mu Seputembala, koma pakusunga tchuthi chisanachitike tchuthi chachifupi, msika ukhoza kuyimitsa kutsika kapena kuyambitsanso pang'ono.
Kusanthula Kutengera Kuyerekeza Mitengo ya August Toluene/Xylene ndi Zambiri Zazikulu
Ponseponse, mitengo idawonetsa kutsika, koma itatha kutsika, phindu lopanga kutsika linakula pang'ono. Kukula kwapang'onopang'ono pakuphatikizika kwamafuta ndi PX kumachepetsa kuthamanga kwamitengo:
Kukambitsirana Kangapo pa Nkhani ya Russia-Ukraine & Kupitilira Kupanga kwa Saudi Arabia Kumakwera Kusunga Msika
Mitengo yamafuta idatsika mosalekeza mwezi uno ndikutsika kwakukulu, pomwe mafuta aku US amasinthasintha makamaka pakati pa $62-$68 pa mbiya. US idachita zokambirana ndi dziko la Europe, Ukraine, ndi mayiko ena aku Europe kuti akambirane za kutha kwenikweni kwa mkangano wa Russia-Ukraine, ndikukweza chiyembekezo chamsika. A Donald Trump adawonetsanso mobwerezabwereza kupita patsogolo pazokambirana, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti zisankho zapadziko lonse zisinthe. OPEC + yotsogozedwa ndi Saudi Arabia idapitilizabe kukulitsa kupanga kuti itenge gawo la msika; Kuphatikizidwa ndi kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa mafuta ku US komanso kutsika pang'onopang'ono kwa mafuta aku US, zoyambira zidakhalabe zofooka. Komanso, deta zachuma monga malipiro osakhala a famu ndi ntchito za PMI zinayamba kufewetsa, ndipo Federal Reserve inasonyeza kuchepetsedwa kwa mitengo mu September, kutsimikiziranso kuopsa kwa chuma. Kutsika kosalekeza kwamitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi kudakhalanso chinthu chofunikira kwambiri chomwe chikupangitsa kuti misika ya toluene ndi xylene ikhale yovuta.
Phindu Lokwanira kuchokera ku Toluene Disproportionation & MX-PX Short Process; PX Enterprises 'Phased External Procurement Imathandizira Misika Awiri ya Benzene
M'mwezi wa Ogasiti, mitengo ya toluene, xylene, ndi PX idatsata kusinthasintha kofananako koma ndikusiyana pang'ono mu matalikidwe, zomwe zidapangitsa kuwongolera pang'ono kwa phindu lochokera ku toluene disproportionation ndi njira yachidule ya MX-PX. Mabizinesi aku Downstream PX adapitilizabe kupeza toluene ndi xylene pamlingo wocheperako, kuletsa kukula kwazinthu m'malo oyenga odziyimira pawokha a Shandong ndi madoko akulu a Jiangsu kuti asakumane ndi ziyembekezo, motero amapereka chithandizo champhamvu pamitengo yamsika.
Divergent Supply-Demand Dynamics Pakati pa Toluene ndi Xylene Kuchepetsa Mtengo Wawo Kufalikira
Mu Ogasiti, mbewu zatsopano monga Yulong Petrochemical ndi Ningbo Daxie zidayamba kupanga, ndikuwonjezera. Komabe, kukula kwapang'onopang'ono kunakhazikika kwambiri mu xylene, kupangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kosiyanasiyana pakati pa toluene ndi xylene. Ngakhale kutsika kwamitengo kumayendetsedwa ndi zinthu zotsika monga kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi komanso kufunikira kofooka, kutsika kwa toluene kunali kocheperako kuposa kwa xylene, kutsika mtengo wawo kufalikira mpaka 200-250 yuan/ton.
September Market Outlook
M'mwezi wa Seputembala, zoyambira zofunidwa za toluene/xylene ndi zinthu zina zofananira zidzakhalabe zofooka. Msika ukhoza kupitirizabe kusinthasintha kwake kofooka kumayambiriro kwa mwezi, koma machitidwe a nyengo zakale amasonyeza chizolowezi chopita patsogolo mu September. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo yamakono yamsika nthawi zambiri imakhala yotsika kwazaka zisanu, ndipo ziyembekezo za kusungirako nthawi yatchuthi isanakwane tchuthi cha Tsiku Ladziko Lonse kungapereke chithandizo, kuchepetsa kutsika kwamitengo. Kaya kubwezeredwa kudzachitika kutengera kusintha kwa kuchuluka kwa kufunikira. Pansipa pali kuwunika kwazomwe zikuchitika pagulu lililonse:
Mafuta Opanda Mafuta: Mitengo Yomwe Ingasinthe Pakupanikizika Ndi Kusinthasintha Kwapang'onopang'ono
Kukambitsirana pa nkhani ya Russia ndi Ukraine kudzapitirira, ndi Ukraine ikuvomereza mfundo za "gawo la mtendere". Maphwando onse akukonzekera msonkhano wapatatu womwe umakhudza Ukraine, dziko la Ulaya, ndi US Komabe, kuyimitsa moto kumakhala kotheka pakangochitika zokambirana zotsatila, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zisankho zapadziko lonse zithetsedwe. Saudi Arabia ipitiliza kulimbikitsa kupanga, ndipo US ikulowa pakanthawi kochepa pakufunika mafuta. Pambuyo pakusokonekera kwazinthu panthawi yachitukuko, mantha amsika akuchulukirachulukira kuzinthu zomwe zikukula munyengo yopuma, zomwe zidzalemeranso mitengo yamafuta. Kuphatikiza apo, Federal Reserve ikuyenera kuchepetsa mitengo mu Seputembala monga momwe zikuyembekezeredwa, kusuntha kwa msika ndikutsata kutsika kwamitengo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikhale yosalowerera ndale. Zokambirana zaku Russia-Ukraine zosiya kumenyana, kumasula ndalama zolipirira dziko, kutsika kwachuma, komanso kupanga zinthu zamafuta kukakamiza mitengo yamafuta kuti isinthe mofooka.
Toluene & Xylene: Zokambirana Zitha Kukhala Zofooka Choyamba, Kenako Zamphamvu
Misika yapakhomo ya toluene ndi xylene ikuyembekezeka kutsika koyamba kenako kupitilira mu Seputembala, ndikusinthasintha pang'ono. Sinopec, PetroChina, ndi opanga ena adzayikabe patsogolo kudzigwiritsa ntchito mu Seputembala, koma mabizinesi ena aziwonjezera malonda akunja pang'ono. Kuphatikizidwa ndi kuchulukitsidwa kochokera ku zomera zatsopano monga Ningbo Daxie, kusiyana kwa kaphatikizidwe kuchokera ku Yulong Petrochemical yochepetsera ntchito yomwe anakonza idzakwaniritsidwa. Kumbali yofunidwa, pomwe zochitika zakale zikuwonetsa kufunikira kwabwino mu Seputembala, palibe zizindikiro zosonyeza kuti anthu akufunafuna. Kufalikira kokha kwa MX-PX komwe kwapangitsa kuti ziyembekezo zogula za PX zikhale zamoyo, kupereka chithandizo champhamvu chamitengo. Kuphatikiza apo, phindu lotsika lophatikiza mafuta komanso mitengo yotsika yazinthu zosakanikirana zofananira zidzachepetsa kukula kwamafuta ophatikizika. Kusanthula kwathunthu kukuwonetsa kuti zofunikira zonse zomwe zimafunidwa zimakhalabe zofooka, koma mitengo yaposachedwa-pazaka zisanu zotsika-imakana kwambiri kutsika kwina. Komanso, kusintha kwa mfundo zomwe zingatheke kungapangitse kukhudzika kwa msika. Choncho, msika uyenera kukhala wofooka poyamba ndiyeno wamphamvu mu September, ndi kusinthasintha kochepa.
Benzene: Akuyembekezeka Kuphatikiza Mofooka Mwezi Wamawa
Mitengo ya Benzene ikhoza kuphatikizika pang'onopang'ono ndi kukondera kofooka. Patsogolo pamtengo, mafuta obiriwira akuyembekezeka kusintha mopanikizika mwezi wamawa, pomwe malo osinthira akusintha pang'ono pansi. Kwenikweni, mabizinesi akutsika alibe mphamvu yotsatirira kukwera kwamitengo chifukwa chosakwanira maoda atsopano komanso kuchuluka kwachulukidwe m'magawo achiwiri akumunsi, zomwe zimapangitsa kukana kufalitsa mitengo. Zoyembekeza zogula zapakatikati pa mwezi wakumapeto zokha zingapereke chithandizo.
PX: Msika Ukhoza Kuphatikizana ndi Kusinthasintha Kwapang'onopang'ono
Kukhudzidwa ndi zomwe zikuchitika ku Middle East geopolitics, ziyembekezo zochepetsera mitengo ya Fed, ndi kusokonekera kwa malamulo a US tariff, mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi ikuyenera kuchita malonda mofooka, kupereka chithandizo chochepa. Kwenikweni, nthawi yokonza zapakhomo ya PX yatha, kotero kuti kupezeka konse kumakhalabe kwakukulu. Kuphatikiza apo, kutumizidwa kwa MX kwatsopano kumatha kukulitsa kutulutsa kwa PX kudzera pakugula kwakunja kwa zinthu zopangira ndi zomera za PX. Kumbali yofunikira, mabizinesi a PTA akukulitsa kukonza chifukwa cha ndalama zotsika mtengo, zomwe zikukulitsa kukakamizidwa kwapanyumba kwa PX komanso kudalirika kwa msika.
MTBE: Kufunika Kofooka-Kufuna Koma Mtengo Wothandizira Kuyendetsa "Wofooka Choyamba, Kenako Wamphamvu"
Kupereka kwapakhomo kwa MTBE kukuyembekezeka kukweranso mu Seputembala. Kufunika kwa mafuta a petulo kumakhala kokhazikika; pomwe kusungitsa tsiku la National Day kusanachitike kungapangitse kufunikira kwina, chithandizo chake chikuyembekezeka kukhala chochepa. Kuphatikiza apo, zokambilana za MTBE zotumiza kunja ndizovuta, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti mitengo ikhale yotsika. Komabe, kuthandizira kwamitengo kudzachepetsa kuchepa, zomwe zimabweretsa "zofooka poyamba, kenako zamphamvu" zamitengo ya MTBE.
Mafuta a Mafuta: Supply-Demand Pressure Kuti Msika Usakhale Wofooka Ndi Kusinthasintha
Mitengo yamafuta am'nyumba ikhoza kupitilira kusinthasintha pang'ono mu Seputembala. Mafuta osakanizidwa akuyembekezeka kusintha mokakamizidwa ndi malo ocheperako pang'ono, akulemera pamsika wamafuta apanyumba. Kumbali yoperekera, mitengo yogwirira ntchito m'makampani akuluakulu amafuta idzatsika, koma omwe ali m'mafakitale odziyimira pawokha adzakwera, kuwonetsetsa kuti mafuta akupezeka okwanira. Kumbali yofunikira, pomwe nyengo yam'mwamba ya "Golden September" ikhoza kuyambitsa chiwonjezeko pang'ono chamafuta amafuta ndi dizilo, kulowetsa mphamvu zatsopano kudzachepetsa kuwongolera. Pakati pa kusakanikirana kwa zinthu zomwe zimapangidwira komanso zotsika, mitengo yamafuta am'nyumba ikuyembekezeka kusinthasintha pang'ono mu Seputembala, ndipo mtengo wapakati ukhoza kutsika ndi 50-100 yuan/ton.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-05-2025